Development Dialogue: The future of evidence-based policymaking and international development

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The third in our series of Development Dialogues centers around how to ensure facts and evidence still matter in policymaking and international development, especially as political landscapes become increasingly divided. It features three experts with unique perspectives on how economists and other development professionals can advise governments to effect change and reduce poverty:

• Stefan Dercon served for six years as Chief Economist at DFID, the UK government department in charge of UK's international development efforts, now FCDO. He is a Professor of Economic Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government and the Economics Department, University of Oxford. 
• Trudi Makhaya served as economic advisor in the office of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa from 2018 to 2023, providing technical support on economic policy. Today she is is a Senior Advisor in the Johannesburg office of Boston Consulting Group.
• Rory Stewart is a Professor in the Practice of Grand Strategy at Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs.  He was previously the UK Secretary of State for International Development, a member of the National Security Council, Minister of State for Africa, Middle East, and Asia, Minister of State for Prisons and Probations, Minister for the Environment and Chair of the House of Commons Defence Select Committee. Most recently he served as the President of GiveDirectly.

Development Dialogues, a collaboration between EGC and VoxDev, facilitates direct conversations between researchers and policy actors on pressing development issues. It builds on the VoxDevTalks podcast and Voices in Development, a podcast from EGC exploring issues related to sustainable development and economic justice in low- and middle-income countries.

Rory Stewart opens the discussion by highlighting the shift away from evidence-based policy in the current political climate.

“Evidence-based policy doesn't really work in a world where nobody actually believes there is any evidence.” - Rory Stewart

Stewart describes the dismantling of USAID and the challenges of pushing for evidence-based policies in a world where narratives, rather than facts, drive decision-making.

Stefan Dercon echoes this sentiment, emphasising how political environments have changed.

“Working in development, it felt like an uncontested space…the space to actually do it as carefully as we can was just much, much bigger.”  - Stefan Dercon

Dercon explains that the rise of populist rhetoric has made it harder to break through with evidence, as political narratives often overshadow factual analysis.

The speakers discuss strategies for reintroducing evidence into policymaking. Stefan Dercon suggests that understanding the mental models of policymakers is key. He argues that it is crucial to identify and exploit entry points, however small, to begin correcting false narratives.

Trudi Makhaya highlights the importance of communicating uncertainty.

“Sometimes things are uncertain, and policymakers expect a high degree of certainty in a way that you can’t always promise.” - Trudi Makhaya

Makhaya explains that building trust with decision-makers and conveying the value of evidence, even in uncertain contexts, can help bridge the gap between research and policy.

Trudi Makhaya draws from her experience as an economic advisor to President Cyril Ramaphosa to illustrate the impact of political dynamics on evidence-based policy. She describes how key government institutions were marginalised during the previous administration.

“People would go, have the proper meetings, present evidence, and then there would be a backroom conversation where the actual decisions were made.” - Trudi Makhaya

She explains how narratives that frame institutions as “elitist” or “out of touch” can undermine public confidence in evidence-based decision-making, creating space for informal and often corrupt decision-making structures.

The conversation shifts to the practical challenges of implementing evidence-based policy in politically constrained environments. Stefan Dercon notes that evidence can often be more effective in preventing bad policies than in promoting new ones.

Rory Stewart reflects on his time as a minister, emphasising the importance of trust and personal relationships in pushing policies forward.

“It’s very difficult, oddly, to convince someone with evidence…The only way in really is often through trust and personal relations.” - Rory Stewart

The second half of this podcast touches on the current state of global development institutions, particularly the dismantling of USAID. Rory Stewart acknowledges past criticisms of development agencies but argues for their continued relevance.

Trudi Makhaya emphasizes the positive impact of certain aid programs, such as PEPFAR’s work on AIDS treatment in Southern Africa.

“A lot of the work that USAID has done here are good case studies of where things go right.” - Trudi Makhaya

She argues for learning from successful programs rather than dismantling entire aid structures.

The speakers discuss the tension between short-term political pressures and long-term policy goals. Stefan Dercon highlights the challenge of making evidence-based policy politically feasible.

“The short run is the biggest enemy of the long run.” - Stefan Dercon

He argues for a more pragmatic approach to evidence-based policymaking that takes political constraints into account.

“Don’t try to give the perfect technocratic solution. Think about what’s the best I can do that’s as evidence-based as possible, given the political reality.” - Stefan Dercon

The conversation concludes with a discussion on the future of international development. Rory Stewart argues for a balanced approach that acknowledges valid criticisms while advocating for the continued importance of development work.

“We need to find a way of saying, yes, there’s something in these critiques, but it’s still worth trying to provide good development programs.” - Rory Stewart

Trudi Makhaya underscores the importance of global cooperation in addressing shared challenges.

“Many issues like climate change and pandemics are global in nature—we can’t solve these problems without international collaboration, including aid.” - Trudi Makhaya

Despite the challenges, the speakers agree on the importance of continuing to advocate for evidence-based policymaking.

The episode highlights the need for perseverance, strategic communication, and trust-building in ensuring that facts and evidence continue to play a central role in shaping policies that drive global development.